X Research
Selected Publications
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When Prediction Markets Disagree: Cross-Platform Dispersion and Equity Volatility in the 2024 U.S. Election (with Emrehan Aktuğ)
Finance Research Letters, 2026, 111, 110664.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [Codes] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Informational Inertia in a Decentralized Prediction Market: Evidence from the May 2024 CPI Leak (with Emrehan Aktuğ)
Finance Research Letters, 2026, 108, 110378.
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Intergenerational Income Mobility in Turkey (with Nizam Melikşah Demirtaş)
The Journal of Economic Inequality, 2024, 22(1), 185–209.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [Slides] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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The Evolution of Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Turkey (with Oğuz Öztunalı)
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2022, 58(14), 4033–4049.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [Slides] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Heterogeneity in Labor Income Profiles: Evidence from Turkey (with Emrehan Aktuğ and Tolga Umut Kuzubaş)
Empirical Economics, 2021, 60(5), 2557–2587.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [Slides] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Risky Choices in a Natural Experiment from Turkey: Var Mısın Yok Musun? (with Ceyhun Elgin and Ertunç Aydoğdu)
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2021, 92, 101685.
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Norm Compliance, Enforcement, and the Survival of Redistributive Institutions (with Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal and Alexander Vostroknutov)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2020, 178, 313–326.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [Slides] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Education in a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy: Revisiting Transatlantic Differences
Journal of Human Capital, 2020, 14(2), 165–216.
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Cross-Sectional Facts for Macroeconomists: Wage, Income and Consumption Inequality in Turkey (with Mehmet Nazım Tamkoç)
The Journal of Economic Inequality, 2020, 18(2), 239–259.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [Interactive] [Slides] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Optimal Ramsey Taxation with Endogenous Risk Aversion (with Orhan Erem Ateşağaoğlu)
Economics Letters, 2018, 171, 87–92.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [Codes] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
Other Publications
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Unequal Outcomes in Unequal Times: The Distributional Consequences of Turkey’s Unorthodox Policies (with Yavuz Selim Kaçmaz, Tolga Umut Kuzubaş, İslam Tarlacı)
New Perspectives on Turkey, 2025, 73, 32–51.
[PDF] [Slides (English)] [Slides (Turkish)] [Blog (English)] [Blog (Turkish)] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Intergenerational Educational Mobility and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe (with Oğuz Öztunalı)
Journal of Income Distribution, Forthcoming.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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The Seeds of Success: The Pivotal Role of First Round Cooperation in Public Goods Games (with Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal and Mustafa Yahşi)
Journal of the Economic Science Association, 2024, 10(1), 113–135.
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Endogenous Risk Aversion In Real Business Cycle Models
Boğaziçi Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 2024, 38(1), 25–46.
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Marginal Cost of Public Funds under the Presence of Informality (with Ceyhun Elgin and Tuğçe Türk)
Review of Public Economics, 2022, 241(2), 79–103.
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Socio-Demographics, Political Attitudes and the Informal Sector Employment: A Cross-Country Analysis (with Mustafa Metin Başbay and Ceyhun Elgin)
Economic Systems, 2018, 42(4), 556–568.
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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On Income and Wealth Inequality in Turkey (with Oğuz Öztunalı)
Central Bank Review, 2018, 18(3), 95–106.
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On the Business Cycle Implications of Alternative Risk Aversion Formulations
Central Bank Review, 2018, 18(2), 41–50.
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A Note on Labor-Search Models
Boğaziçi Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 2017, 31(2), 1–21.
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Energy Consumption and the Size of the Informal Economy (with Mustafa Metin Başbay and Ceyhun Elgin)
Economics E-Journal, 2016, 10(2016-14), 1–28.
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A Note on the Intertemporal Labor Dynamics in Turkey (with Serdar Selçuk)
Economics Bulletin, 2016, 36(4), 2063–2079.
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Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey (with C. Emre Alper)
Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2010, 6(1), 90–105.
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Asymmetric Adjustment of Retail Gasoline Prices in Turkey to World Crude Oil Price Changes: The Role of Taxes (with C. Emre Alper)
Economics Bulletin, 2009, 29 (2), 775–787.
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Oil Prices, Aggregate Economic Activity and Global Liquidity Conditions: Evidence from Turkey (with C. Emre Alper)
Economics Bulletin, 2008, 17(4), 1–8.
Working Papers
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Calibration as a Channel for Discretization Error
[PDF] [Online Supplement] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Gold’s Missing Anchor: The Real-Rate Decoupling and the Reserve-Safety Premium
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Reflex without Persistence: The Dollar’s Multi-Day Safe-Haven Reversal in 2025
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Statistics in the Dark: Repricing the Fed Path When Official Data Arrive Late
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Pricing the Arsenal: Defense-Procurement Shocks in Financial and Local Labor Markets
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Election Probabilities and the Treasury Yield Curve (with Emrehan Aktuğ)
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A Harmonic-Mean Decomposition of Sibling Correlations: Evidence from Turkey (with Oğuz Öztunalı)
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Missionary Infrastructure and the Deepening of Ottoman State Schooling
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Silicon Experts: How Well Do LLMs Replicate Expert Economic Judgment? (with Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal)
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Price Discovery Across Political Prediction Markets: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election (with Emrehan Aktuğ)
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Political Capital: Real-Time Electoral Probabilities and the Value of Corporate Political Alignment (with Emrehan Aktuğ)
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Bridging the Gap: Absolute and Relative Intergenerational Educational Mobility
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Europe (with Oğuz Öztunalı)
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [Slides] [DeepDive] [VideoLM] [InfoLM] [Cite]
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Transatlantic Differences in Taxation, Redistribution and Provision of Public Goods: How Fair is Inequality?
DeepDive is a Gemini Notebook-generated two-host audio conversation. VideoLM is a Gemini Notebook-generated video overview. InfoLM is Gemini Notebook-generated infographics. If you have trouble accessing any links, please email orhan.torul@bogazici.edu.tr.