@unpublished{Torul2026Reflex,
  author       = {Orhan Torul},
  title        = {Reflex without Persistence: The Dollar's Multi-Day Safe-Haven Reversal in 2025},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = jul,
  note         = {Unpublished manuscript},
  keywords     = {safe-haven currencies, U.S. dollar, flight to safety, reserve currencies, foreign exchange options, high-frequency data},
  abstract     = {A safe-haven currency appreciates when risk rises. Using sixteen years of high-frequency cross-asset futures and 465 risk-off days, the paper decomposes the U.S. dollar's safe-haven behavior into an intraday reflex and a multi-day persistence. The two diverged in 2025: the reflex survived, but the dollar's multi-day safe-haven effect reversed after policy-driven shocks, while German Bunds and rival reserve currencies appreciated. The effect is concentrated in 2025 and fades in early 2026, suggesting a stress episode rather than a permanent regime change.},
  url          = {https://ssrn.com/abstract=7139812},
  doi          = {10.2139/ssrn.7139812}
}